Girl injured jumping off diving board

Seattle Fire Department and Police units raced to the Madison Park beach late this afternoon to aid a girl who apparently hit her head while diving off one of the diving boards at the beach. It was unclear whether she hit her head on the diving board or became unconscious as a result of doing a belly flop into the water.

KOMO-TV, which provides the picture of the scene above, reported on its website this evening that the girl was not conscious after being rescued from the water by one of the lifeguards and had not regained consciousness after CPR was performed. However, a later report on KOMO's evening news stated that she was conscious before being transported to the hospital.

So what's up with this green beach gunk?

It seems that every year, as the weather starts to get warm, our Madison Park beaches begin to accumulate quantities of a green odoriferous material that could cause us to wonder if there might be something wrong with the health of Lake Washington. The problem is more apparent at the constricted road end beaches than at the Park beach, but green water is definitely a part of the annual beach scene here from June to August. So what is this stuff?

I contacted Dean Wilson, King County Senior Water Quality Planner, to find out. Here's the executive summary of our conversation: not to worry. It may be stinky, and it may be tough to get out of your dog's fur after a beach swim, but green is good--or at least in this case, not bad. It's simply green algae which is both common to the Lake and non-toxic.

Wilson explained that there are basically two types of green algae that may be contributing to the green build ups in the Lake. One form of these Chlorophytes is Oedogonium (shown at right), and the other is Spirogyra. Unlike some forms of blue-green algae, the green algae that grows in Lake Washington does not produce toxins. Blue-green algae is not unknown in Northwest lakes, however. In 1997 there was a blue-green algae problem in Lake Sammamish, for example. Wilson does not believe that Lake Washington has any toxin producing algae at this time. "We've been monitoring for toxins at the beaches on Lake Washington and we haven't seen anything yet," he said.

So what causes the algae to accumulate and wash up onto the beaches? The answer is that both green algae types grow as filaments which attach to rocks and the bottom of the Lake. When these filaments grow too long they can break off as a result of wind and water action. It is generally in late July when these accumulations are greatest in Lake Washington, just in time for Seafair.

While decomposing piles of washed-up algae can be unsightly and stinky, they pose no health risk and are not evidence of an unhealthy Lake. Ironically, the high water quality of Lake Washington may be the cause of these green-algae accumulations. The higher the water clarity, according to Wilson, the greater the amount of sunlight penetrating lower into the Lake, resulting in increased levels of algae.

Believe it or not, green-algae accumulations have been recorded of up to ten inches deep on some Lake Washington beaches in past years. Not at Madison Park, fortunately.

[Oedogonium photo courtesy of the King County Department of Natural Resources and Parks. Beach photo is of the road end beach at 4299 E. Lee Street in early July.]

What next for the “notorious” Deano’s site?

It’s been a solid year since Madison Park resident Jeff Mueller and his partners permanently leveled the blighted Madison Street block that had housed the skuzzy Deano’s nightclub (aka Club Chocolate City). In undertaking this “public service” demolition, Mueller and his company, JC Mueller LLC, earned both the thanks of those of us who regularly drive through the area and, presumably, the undying gratitude of those who actually live there.

Before its implosion, Deano’s--almost universally referred to in press reports as “notorious” or “infamous”--was the scene of police activity virtually daily. The alternative newspaper, The Stranger, described the site as a “convergence zone for drug sellers and crack addicts.” According to the Madison Park Times, the block was a “magnet for criminal activity,” known for its drugs, prostitution, loitering and the occasional shooting. In preparation for the upcoming redevelopment, both Deano’s Grocery and Club Chocolate City were closed in 2007, leading to a decline in criminal activity in the area.

When Mueller rescued the neighborhood (which is called Miller Park by area residents), it was not altogether an altruistic exercise. The plan in 2008 was to follow the demolition with construction of a mixed-use residential building on the 2026 E. Madison Street site. Construction was to begin next month. Mueller’s companion project across the street at 2051 E. Madison Street (former site of the Twilight Exit) was originally scheduled to get underway even earlier. Obviously, construction has not begun; and what we have at the intersection of E. Madison and E. Denny Way is a giant fenced-off dirt lot on one side of the street and a group of vacant buildings on the other, not that anyone is really complaining.

Most of us probably do not have so expansive a view of Madison Park’s reach as to believe (like the landlord of The Summit at Madison Park, which houses the Safeway store) that our community actually reaches up into the Miller Park neighborhood. Because of its proximity, however, I suspect most of us in Madison Park probably are interested in knowing the current status of both Mueller projects. So I decided to find out what’s happening.

As recently as last October, Mueller was being quoted as saying he didn’t expect the national credit crunch to delay either project. That was then. By early 2009, the markets had drastically changed and it was apparent that financing was far from assured. Mueller tells me that both projects are on track in every way except for the financing. “In October we had sources for the financing,” he says, “but they sort of vaporized. Now we’re waiting for the financial markets to stabilize. We could get a loan today, but the terms would be onerous.”

Mueller believes that both projects continue to be economically viable, especially if the costs of construction come down. These had been high relative to historic levels, he says, but expectations are that the financial downturn will lead to lower construction expenses as contractors compete more fiercely for the work that’s available.

In the meantime, both projects continue to move forward on the pre-construction track. In May the City issued a permit for development of the Twilight Exit site. This project, designed by the Mithun architectural firm, is a 95-unit apartment building which will also have about 6,500 feet of retail space:

Unless the existing buildings were to deteriorate in some way, Mueller says, it is not the plan to tear them down before project financing is in place.

Across the street on the Deano’s site, cleanup continues on what was a very contaminated site. Most of that work has been completed, Mueller says, and he expects the City to issue a master use permit for the site late this summer or early fall. On this, the larger site, a 222-unit apartment building, designed by Weinstein AU, will be constructed:

The building will have 9,500 sq. ft. of retail space and, like the companion project across the street, underground parking.

Both projects are designed to provide “workforce” housing, apparently consistent with the target market for The Summit at Madison Park, across the street. Mueller reiterated to me what he’s said elsewhere about never having felt that the sites could support condos, a market he believed was about to implode—which it did.

But what about adding 317 new apartment units at these sites (plus another 92 units at 2203 E. Union St., Mueller’s third area project)? Mueller believes the economics of all three buildings still work. He notes that about 400 new residential units are currently under construction and will soon be coming on the market in the general vicinity. (There are also 48 brand new “rooming house” units coming on line, about which The Stranger has an interesting article: “Thinking Small”).

To date, the apartment market has held up surprisingly well in Seattle, he notes, and he believes that the location on Madison is excellent in terms of access to Downtown and the now-trendy Pike/Pine neighborhood. It’s a fact, nevertheless, that several already-completed apartment buildings not far from Mueller’s sites (including The Summit) are not yet fully leased. If the economics still work, as Mueller believes, it probably won't be at anytime in the immediate future.

So what’s his best guess for when construction will begin? “I can’t say it’ll be next year,” he says, but it could easily be the following year. “We would begin building as quickly as the markets will let us,” he adds, “but I can’t say we’re in a hurry.”

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[Photo of the 2026 E. Madison building courtesy of Mithun; photo of the 2051 E. Madison building courtesy of JCMueller LLC, via the Miller Park Neighborhood Association site .]

Vanity blogging as a public service

Ever since I started writing this blog, my wife has been discovering articles on blogging and suggesting that I read them. Sometimes I do.

A few weeks ago she gave me one titled “Six Critical Factors for Successful Bloggers” or something like that. Just offhand, I can’t remember what all of the critical factors were; but I do remember that they included find a niche, be interesting, and post regularly. However, the Number One factor, and the one I violate almost daily, was keep it short.

This week happens to mark the three-month anniversary of Madison Park Blogger, and I think this is a good point for me to reiterate my purpose, including my rationale for NOT keeping it short.

It’s a joke among those who follow the blogosphere that most bloggers have a readership of one. Blogging is, for many, today’s version of what was once called the vanity press. Nowadays, with desktop publishing and Kindle, anyone can be a published author. And with blogging becoming virtually effortless, anyone can broadcast his or her opinions to the world. Whether a blogger’s musings are consequential, however, depends on there being an audience willing to listen.

A recent article in the New York Times (“Blogs Falling in an Empty Forest”) states that blogs have a higher failure rate even than restaurants. “According to a 2008 survey by Technorati, which runs a search engine for blogs, only 7.4 million out of the 133 million blogs the company tracks had been updated in the past 120 days. That translates to 95 percent of blogs being essentially abandoned, left to lie fallow on the Web, where they become public remnants of a dream — or at least an ambition — unfulfilled.”

Just across the water in Laurelhurst, on approximately the two-month anniversary of his blog, my onetime blogger colleague, Mike Mathieu, made the decision to shut down LaurelPost. This is him, I believe, as he got ready to throw in the towel:

His stated rationale for ending it all was that with an average of only 80 readers per day, it just wasn’t worthwhile to keep going. Laurelhurst thus lost an opportunity to have an alternative source (perhaps an only source) of timely news about the community.

Right now Madison Park Blogger has an average daily readership of 50, and there have been about 200 unique visitors to the site since inception (this figure is based on the number of people who have viewed my profile, not something anyone would probably need to do twice). Laurelhurst and Madison Park have similar demographics, I suspect, and a roughly equal base of potential blog viewers. Yet unlike Mike, I am not disheartened at my site’s level of readership. We have experienced slow but steady growth in our first three months, and I expect that to continue as more potential readers become aware of this site. For me, blogging is fun—and it gives me a sense of purpose to know that I am performing a useful service for those who choose to read my posts.

What I mostly write about is what I myself would want to read about if only someone else would write it. I’m interested in what’s happening in my neighborhood and down the road. I want to know about local issues that may affect me, and I want to know what’s happening with the businesses in our area. I want to hear about criminal activities that may impact me, and I’m interested in knowing what’s going on in the real estate market here in the Park. I care about preserving the things that make Madison Park the special place that we all enjoy, and I am curious about our history as a community.

My friends at Next Door Media, owners of the myballard.com blog and several other for-profit blogs in the Northwest quadrant of the City, state their mission this way: “We produce original journalism that struggling newspapers are increasingly unable to provide." Though I am an amateur, I have the same mission. My objective is to cover stories I think Madison Park residents will find interesting or important, or both. And if it requires a lot of words to cover the story in depth, the length of the posting will do justice to the story. This journalistic approach is atypical of bloggers, but I am hardly the typical blogger. Just call me the Madison Park Essayist.

Thanks for being along for the ride. I appreciate the support and kind words of the many people who have taken the time to give me their feedback. Please keep your comments and suggestions coming.

Bryan Tagas

(By the way, my wife tells me that she doesn’t always read my posts. They’re just too long.)

'Sugary eye candy' at Madison Park beach?

This is amusing. In a story posted this afternoon, the national website examiner.com (“Insider Source for Everything Local”) anointed our beach as the “safest bet for the best (and least) in beach fashion,” at least compared to other Seattle beaches.

To illustrate their point, they used a photo of a scantily-clad Ursula Andress from the 1962 James Bond movie, Dr. No. She’s seen standing on a beautiful, sun-soaked beach—which in reality is the beach at Laughing Waters Estate on St. Ann’s Bay in Jamaica.

But never mind, our beach is just as exciting. Referring to the “mad beach” as a “small gem,” our author goes on to wax lyrical: “All beautiful walks of life are represented in this sunny little utopia. There is far more sugary eye candy that most any other beach in the area, and it can be quite sexy. The less clothes the better is the fashion de jour [sic]. Patterns such as polka dots and itsy bitsy bikinis adorn most of the princesses who rule this kingdom, and a heavy dose of American Apparel and H&M is apparently what the doctor went and ordered.”

Well, it goes on from there. I suspect that if the author actually made it to Seattle, he was not at the beach on that gray day last week when the Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence were frolicking there and playing in the park. I understand that when the Sisters slid down the slide a little more was exposed than most observers expected or wanted to see. But that’s just hearsay.

Those wishing to read the full story on how great our beach is can do so here.

Short takes

Don’t eat and run at Bing’s

The call went out over the police channel one afternoon last week that a couple of diners at Bing’s Bodacious Burgers (4200 E. Madison St.) had exited the establishment without paying the tab (to be fair to them, they did plunk down a $1 bill before dashing). This kind of fraud, known as dine and ditch (aka running the check), may work in some restaurants, and it may even have worked a time or two at Bing’s. But not on this day.

Although the police had been called and a description of the scofflaws had been broadcast, it was quick action by Bing’s owner, Stan Moshier, that got the situation resolved. Stan is not only lean and lithe, but he’s also a big-time runner. Let's just say that our diners picked the wrong guy to try to stiff. So though the miscreants had a bit of a head start, Stan was still able to run them down and extract the requisite payment. A “never mind” call was placed to the police stating that, actually, the patrons had paid their bill. As one of Bing’s wait staff put it to me, “Stan wasn’t interested in making trouble; he was just interested in getting paid.”

No word on whether the couple also paid the tip.

SFD water-rescue team descends on the Park

At a little after 10:30 Sunday night sirens were heard blaring down Madison as multiple Seattle Fire vehicles raced to the Park for what was expected to be a major water-rescue operation. There had been a report of a distressed swimmer in Lake Washington off of the 1800 block of 43rd Avenue. E. I understand that the thirteen Fire Department units dispatched for this mission, including two ladder trucks, made quite a din in the neighborhood; but I slept through the whole thing.

Fortunately it turned out to be a false alarm. There were swimmers in the water, including some noisy ones, but none that was in any trouble. Weren’t thirteen aid units a bit of overkill, I asked? Not really, the SFD public liaison officer replied. When it comes to a possible water rescue, the department does not take half measures.

No argument here.

We're not alone

Last month we did a story on aggressive door-to-door magazine salespeople ("They're baaaack!!!") based on the experiences of my neighbors in past summers. I am happy to say that I have not received reports of any Madison Park incidents this summer. But such is not the case in other neighborhoods, unfortunately. Recent police reports show that overly pushy magazine hustlers are working parts of the the City, and KOMO-TV posted a Herb Weisbaum story on the subject today: "Door-to-door magazine sale scams out in full force."

June Real Estate Report

Home sales up, pending sales strong

There appears to be solid ground for optimism that the worst may be over for the real estate market in Madison Park. Home sales accelerated significantly in June, with the King County Assessor reporting ten homes sold in Madison Park during the month, an increase of 67% over the rather dismal six sales recorded in May. For the first five months of 2009 there was an average of only seven sales per month, so June’s sales figure represents a dramatic improvement.

But is this an aberration or do June’s results appear to be part of a new positive trend? Looking at average monthly home sales by quarter for the past 15 months certainly makes it appear that the market has bottomed out and may be on the rebound (click graph to enlarge):

Fueling an optimistic outlook is the fact that as of last week there were already nine Madison Park homes listed by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service as somewhere in the closing process (known in the industry as “pended” or “pending”). And the outlook appears even better if you are super inclusive and count the Madison Lofts (2914 E. Madison Street) as being within Madison Park and not over the line in Madison Valley. Six Madison Lofts condo units are pending sale, which if counted would raise the total pendings to 15. I am told that historically, 90% of pendings normally close.

Most of the real estate agents I talked to are cautiously optimistic, but few of them are willing to be quoted on the record that they believe the tide has turned. One of the big issues facing buyers is obtaining financing. This is especially true at the $1 million sales price and above, according to Ron Sparks, Marketing Vice President at Coldwell Banker Bain. He notes that banks appear to be reluctant to lend, and when they do lend the standards for approval are substantially higher than they were at the height of the market. He says he has personally seen at lot of arbitrary decision making by banks, and some buyers have been forced to find their financing from non-traditional lenders or even to go out of state to find a willing bank. “People who are highly qualified and should be allowed to buy are being kept from doing so,” he says. “It’s stalling the recovery, frankly.”

Nevertheless, deals are evidently getting done. Based on June’s sales, Madison Park’s absorption rate (the number of months it will take to sell the available inventory of houses on the market) has declined from 17 months in May to 12 months now. There are currently 119 properties on the market in Madison Park (including Broadmoor and Washington Park). And as was true last month, the homes for sale are substantially larger and more expensive, in general, than the typical Madison Park home.

Here’s a graphic showing the progression of home values, starting with Zillow’s estimate $1,010,000 for the median value of all homes in Madison Park (single family and otherwise) and concluding with the $1,606,000 median listing price for the homes currently on the market (click graph to enlarge):

Zillow estimates that the median Madison Park home has 2,049 sq. ft. (this figure includes condos and townhouses). Believe it or not, seventy percent of the houses listed for sale in the Park boast 3,000 sq. ft. or more, and almost all of them are located in Broadmoor or Washington Park.

Here’s a snapshot of the current listings in the Park (based on data from Redfin):

Houses

Listings: 88
Median Asking Price: $1,990,000
Median Square Footage: 3,680
Median Price per Square Foot: $541
Average Days on Market: 102
Percentage with Price Reductions: 39%

Condos

Listings: 26
Median Asking Price: $525,000
Median Square Footage: 1,131
Median Price per Square Foot: $464
Average Days on Market: 122
Percentage with Price Reductions: 50%

Townhouses

Listings: 5
Median Asking Price: $449,950
Median Square Footage: 1,200
Median Price per Square Foot: $375
Average Days on Market: 50
Percentage with Price Reductions: 40%

(As we cautioned last month, take with a grain of salt the figures for days on market and the percentage with price reductions. Many of these units have been on the market in the past, were withdrawn and later put back on the market. They thus get treated as new listings.)

Shown below is a 1939 five-bedroom view house in Washington Park (610 Hillside Drive E.) which represents a prototypical house currently on the market in the Madison Park area. Its $1,695,000 asking price is just slightly higher than the $1,606,000 median price of all homes currently listed for sale, including condos and townhouses. This listing of Kathryn Hinds, Windermere Real Estate, was recently reduced by $200,000. Its original list price, over a year ago, was $2,795,000.

The most expensive home sale last month was of a 4,020 sq. ft. 1939 four-bedroom house in Broadmoor (2110 Waverly Way. E.) which sold for $2,675,000. As a side note, the $3 million rambler located in the Reed Estate, which I mentioned on this blog last month as the “gracious and elegant” other home for sale there (“A glimpse beyond the gates”) is one of the nine homes on the list of currently pending sales.

It appears there have been no foreclosures in our market, although I have learned anecdotally that there may be one short sale in the works. Short sales are situations where a home owner sells at a price less than the amount owing on the mortgage. This kind of transaction obviously involves approval by the lender and takes much more time to close. I understand that a speculative developer with an unsold condo in our market may now be having that kind of discussion with his lender.

To put the Madison Park market into perspective, Coldwell Banker Bain did some absorption-rate comparisons for me based on pending sales. The numbers seem to show that the overall Seattle market is definitely heating up at a faster rate than ours:

Seattle Listings: 1,902
Seattle Pendings: 801
Absorption Rate: 2.37 (Months of For-Sale Inventory)

Madison Park Listings: 119
Madison Park Pendings: 9
Absorption Rate: 13.22 (Months of For-Sale Inventory)

If the pending Madison Lofts sales are included, Madison Park’s absorption rate is 7.93. It’s also worth noting that within Madison Park there is a huge disparity between Broadmoor’s 31 months of inventory and the inventory level for the rest of the market. The case of Broadmoor provides an easy way to understand the concept of absorption rate: there are 31 houses for sale, with only one sale pending. At that rate it will take 31 months to clear existing inventory, an absorption rate of 31.

Putting the Seattle and Madison Park numbers into context, CBBain’s Sparks notes that at the height of the market the Seattle absorption rate was on the order of 2.0. For 2008, he estimates the rate had risen to 5.0. So while Madison Park has certainly not fully recovered, at a current rate of 2.37 the Seattle market has actually made a remarkable comeback. The Eastside’s current 3.54 absorption rate is also a pretty good indicator of a market turn, he believes.

Kathryn Lister, also of CBBain, believes that for the market to return to normal at the upper end, some things still have to change. “There is definitely a disconnect between people’s desire to make a purchase and their ability to get it done,” she said. There is also buyer nervousness based on market perceptions, she says, and some pretty serious problems in getting appraisals done and accepted by lenders. In the past she notes, most upper-market sales involved bridge loans, which are just not available in the market today. Speculative buying, which once drove a part of the market, is certainly no longer accepted. Many sophisticated buyers are taking a wait-and-see approach, still sitting on the sidelines, she believes.

Sparks sums the situation up this way: “The sellers had been driving the market up artificially, and now the buyers are driving it down artificially.” Ann Henderson, a realtor with Windermere, adds that there’s another factor also at work: seller misperception of where the market is. “I think that about 50% of sellers just don’t get it,” she says. “They think their house is still worth what is was, or is even appreciating!” So it’s not only a problem with buyers, it’s a problem with sellers—and, of course, mortgage bankers.

The bottom line of this report is that Madison Park’s level of housing inventory remains high; and while the situation does seem to be improving, it will probably take a few more months for us to be able to say whether what now appears to be an upward trajectory is not just a momentary summer blip.

[The photo at the top of the page shows a new listing this week of 1443 McGilvra Boulevard E., an extensively remodeled three-bedroom 1927 cottage, a listing of Windermere’s Mary Snyder. Priced at $1,250,000, it is one of the more inexpensive houses currently on the market in Madison Park.]

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A note on methodology:

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The real estate market analyzed in this report covers Sub Areas 6 (Broadmoor) and 7 (Madison Park and Washington Park) of Area 14, as designated by the Office of the King County Assessor. This is essentially the geographic territory defined in the description at right of the “Madison Park Blogger Coverage Area.” Differences between the median figures used above and those of Zillow, as shown on its site, result from the combining of the two Sub Areas, which are separately analyzed by Zillow but are not broken out for purposes of this report. Broadmoor represents 18% of the total residential units within Madison Park and is weighted accordingly. Also note that the term “homes” generally refers to single-family houses, condos and townhouses, whereas “houses” refers only to single-family houses.